About the project
Edge, quantified.
Minvest is a quantitative research project applying statistical modeling to sports betting markets — starting with soccer, built to expand. The goal: find the gap between modeled probability and the market's implied price, and only act when that gap is real.
The approach
Every match gets modeled independently using statistical estimation of expected goals, with adjustments for team strength, recent form, and home/away effects. Those modeled probabilities are then compared against sportsbook lines to flag value — spots where the market's price doesn't line up with what the model expects.
It's a research-first process: build the model, test it against real results, refine it, repeat.
Where it stands
Currently focused on soccer leagues with a build-out underway for major tournament play. The underlying framework is designed to be sport-agnostic, so additional sports will follow as the models mature.